Russian fertilizer producers are unlikely to fully offset a potential global supply shortfall associated with the U.S.-Iran conflict, according to sources cited in a Reuters report. While Russia remains the world’s largest fertilizer exporter and accounts for roughly one-fifth of global fertilizer trade, its near-term ability to increase supply is limited by capacity constraints, domestic export controls, and recent disruptions affecting production facilities.
The report said the conflict has shut down fertilizer plants in the Middle East and severely disrupted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for about one-third of global fertilizer trade. These developments have raised concerns over the stability of international supply and the potential for tighter market conditions.
According to Reuters, Russian producers are continuing to prioritize domestic demand, particularly ahead of the planting season. Additional export-oriented capacity is not expected to come online before 2027, reducing the likelihood of any meaningful short-term increase in overseas shipments. The report also noted that Russia introduced fertilizer export restrictions in 2021 to help secure domestic supply.
Reuters further reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on the Dorogobuzh plant, owned by Acron, temporarily disrupted around 5% of Russia’s total fertilizer production capacity. The Dorogobuzh facility accounts for 11% of the country’s ammonium nitrate output and 9% of its NPK fertilizer production, according to the report.
Market reaction has reflected expectations of tighter supply. Reuters said shares in Acron and PhosAgro have posted modest gains on the Moscow Exchange since February 28, rising 3% and 4%, respectively. The report also cited analysts at T-Bank as saying that a shortage of phosphate fertilizers, together with China’s export restrictions, the shutdown of sulphur production in Qatar, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, could continue to support higher prices.
Overall, the report suggests that global fertilizer markets may remain under pressure in the near term, as geopolitical risk, supply disruptions, and logistical constraints continue to influence trade flows and pricing expectations.
