North Africa, the third-largest cereal-producing region in Africa after West and East Africa, is expected to see a recovery in cereal output in 2025, despite having endured more than six consecutive years of drought.
According to the latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in November, cereal production in North Africa is forecast to reach 34.8 million tonnes in 2025. If confirmed, this would represent an increase of 6.1%, equivalent to nearly 2 million tonnes more than the volume harvested in 2024.
All countries in the region are expected to record year-on-year growth in cereal production. The FAO attributes this improvement primarily to more favorable weather conditions and the expansion of planted areas in Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt.
With an estimated output of 24.2 million tonnes, Egypt remains the region’s largest cereal producer, accounting for nearly 70% of total regional production. It is followed by Morocco, which represents approximately 13% of output, Algeria with 12%, and Tunisia.
Despite the overall positive outlook, Morocco stands out as the only country in North Africa where cereal production is projected to remain below its five-year average. The FAO notes that this underperformance continues to reflect the impact of prolonged drought conditions in the country’s main cereal-growing areas.
Looking ahead, prospects for the 2026 season appear less favorable. Early climate forecasts from the FAO suggest a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall between October and December 2025, a critical sowing period for winter cereals. Such conditions could negatively affect planting operations and reduce cultivated areas in rain-fed agricultural zones across Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.
Source: Agence Ecofin
